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survey-methodology

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This repository contains the data, code, and supplementary material for the paper "Vox Populi, Vox AI? Using Language Models to Estimate German Public Opinion" by Leah von der Heyde, Anna-Carolina Haensch, and Alexander Wenz, available at https://doi.org/10.1177/08944393251337014

  • Updated Jul 16, 2026

Anchoring vignettes applied to language models for the first time. Placing reference exemplars before a self-assessment transfers their rating onto it; reversing the turn order removes the effect. 5 models, 900 observations, execution-verified ground truth, all thresholds preregistered.

  • Updated Aug 28, 2026
  • Python

Analysis of the accuracy of U.S. presidential election polls (2008–2024) based on prediction error data. Compares ideal vs. practical polling methodology, presents three contrasting visualizations of the same dataset to illustrate framing effects, and identifies selection/measurement biases with recommendations to improve accuracy.

  • Updated Aug 29, 2026
  • R

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